| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Chattanooga | 45-10 | 1626.4 | +28.5 | 1654.9 | 94.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Georgia State | 38-16 | 1654.9 | +28.9 | 1683.8 | 85.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Troy | 28-7 | 1683.8 | +48.0 | 1731.8 | 71.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Arkansas | 32-31 | 1731.8 | +12.4 | 1744.2 | 26.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 55-26 | 1744.2 | +11.6 | 1755.8 | 90.0% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Tulsa | 45-7 | 1755.8 | +42.2 | 1798.0 | 90.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | UAB | 24-31 | 1798.6 | -62.4 | 1736.2 | 94.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | South Florida | 34-31 | 1736.2 | +10.1 | 1746.3 | 38.3% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | W | Rice | 38-14 | 1746.3 | +5.0 | 1751.3 | 89.4% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | L | Tulane | 32-38 | 1751.3 | -22.5 | 1728.8 | 64.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | East Carolina | 27-31 | 1728.8 | -6.2 | 1722.6 | 52.0% |
| 15 | Nov 27 2025 | L | Navy | 17-28 | 1719.6 | -29.4 | 1690.2 | 62.2% |
| 18 | Dec 19 2025 | L | NC State | 7-31 | 1689.8 | -42.7 | 1647.1 | 44.5% |