| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 2026 | W | UNLV | 27-21 | 1625.2 | -43.4 | 1581.8 | 65.7% |
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Arkansas State | 42-24 | 1625.2 | -43.4 | 1581.8 | 84.0% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Boise State | 20-38 | 1581.8 | -26.9 | 1554.9 | 33.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | UT Martin | 45-21 | 1554.9 | -14.8 | 1540.1 | 96.8% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Charlotte | 59-8 | 1550.4 | +76.6 | 1627.0 | 85.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | UAB | 38-13 | 1627.0 | +5.8 | 1632.7 | 80.7% |