| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Western Michigan | 13-12 | 1707.2 | +55.9 | 1763.0 | 78.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Oklahoma | 17-10 | 1763.0 | +0.4 | 1763.4 | 30.2% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | UTEP | 52-17 | 1763.4 | -16.6 | 1746.8 | 97.3% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Iowa | 19-20 | 1746.8 | +1.9 | 1748.7 | 36.5% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Minnesota | 14-20 | 1748.7 | -19.1 | 1729.6 | 61.3% |