| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | New Mexico | 34-17 | 1923.3 | -50.3 | 1873.0 | 95.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Oklahoma | 13-24 | 1873.0 | -27.7 | 1845.3 | 50.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 63-3 | 1845.3 | +126.5 | 1971.8 | 94.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Nebraska | 30-27 | 1971.8 | +17.9 | 1989.7 | 52.3% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 24-10 | 1989.0 | -11.7 | 1977.3 | 83.3% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | USC | 13-31 | 1977.3 | -50.2 | 1927.1 | 48.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Washington | 24-7 | 1927.1 | +30.3 | 1957.4 | 47.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Michigan State | 31-20 | 1957.4 | -0.4 | 1957.0 | 87.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Purdue | 21-16 | 1957.0 | -30.0 | 1927.0 | 89.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Northwestern | 24-22 | 1927.7 | -9.5 | 1918.2 | 76.1% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Maryland | 45-20 | 1918.2 | +30.7 | 1948.9 | 81.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Ohio State | 9-27 | 1948.9 | -18.8 | 1930.1 | 16.9% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | L | Texas | 27-41 | 1929.9 | -25.6 | 1904.3 | 44.7% |