| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | New Mexico | 34-17 | 1931.1 | +1.8 | 1932.9 | 97.1% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Oklahoma | 13-24 | 1932.9 | -71.2 | 1861.7 | 87.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Central Michigan | 63-3 | 1861.7 | +2.2 | 1863.9 | 96.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Nebraska | 30-27 | 1863.9 | +16.2 | 1880.1 | 85.4% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Wisconsin | 24-10 | 1880.1 | +6.0 | 1886.1 | 90.5% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | USC | 13-31 | 1886.1 | -58.0 | 1828.1 | 74.8% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Washington | 24-7 | 1828.1 | +28.3 | 1856.4 | 59.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Michigan State | 31-20 | 1856.4 | +9.1 | 1865.5 | 92.0% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Purdue | 21-16 | 1865.5 | +2.0 | 1867.5 | 96.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Northwestern | 24-22 | 1867.5 | +14.9 | 1882.4 | 86.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Maryland | 45-20 | 1882.4 | +6.7 | 1889.1 | 94.1% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Ohio State | 9-27 | 1889.1 | -21.2 | 1867.9 | 19.5% |
| 20 | Dec 31 2025 | L | Texas | 27-41 | 1867.9 | -34.6 | 1833.3 | 40.7% |