| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Alabama State | 52-42 | 1454.1 | -56.7 | 1397.4 | 93.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Navy | 24-38 | 1397.4 | +20.5 | 1417.9 | 13.2% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Akron | 31-28 | 1417.9 | -33.7 | 1384.2 | 79.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Tennessee | 24-56 | 1384.2 | +16.9 | 1401.1 | 3.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Army | 13-31 | 1389.3 | -32.3 | 1357.0 | 27.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Florida Atlantic | 33-53 | 1357.0 | -44.3 | 1312.7 | 49.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Memphis | 31-24 | 1312.7 | +59.5 | 1372.2 | 5.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | UConn | 19-38 | 1382.0 | -11.3 | 1370.7 | 21.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Rice | 17-24 | 1370.7 | -3.2 | 1367.5 | 50.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | North Texas | 24-53 | 1367.5 | -19.8 | 1347.7 | 9.8% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | South Florida | 18-48 | 1347.7 | -11.1 | 1336.6 | 6.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Tulsa | 31-24 | 1336.6 | +17.0 | 1353.6 | 43.5% |