| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | L | Illinois | 23-42 | 1454.2 | -2.7 | 1451.5 | 11.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | UL Monroe | 26-20 | 1451.5 | -25.6 | 1425.8 | 78.9% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | L | Louisiana | 14-21 | 1425.8 | +20.8 | 1446.6 | 32.5% |
| 4 | Sep 25 2026 | W | Navy | 24-20 | 1446.6 | +15.7 | 1462.3 | 29.6% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Samford | 33-14 | 1462.3 | -5.9 | 1456.3 | 85.1% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Memphis | 13-38 | 1456.3 | -6.7 | 1449.6 | 19.3% |