| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 28 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 17-10 | 1384.6 | +55.2 | 1439.8 | 28.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | North Carolina A&T | 68-7 | 1439.8 | +0.0 | 1439.8 | 41.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | North Carolina | 34-9 | 1439.8 | +35.9 | 1475.7 | 49.9% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Kansas State | 20-34 | 1475.7 | -26.8 | 1448.9 | 38.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Kansas | 20-27 | 1448.9 | -36.0 | 1412.9 | 34.9% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Cincinnati | 11-20 | 1412.9 | -19.4 | 1393.5 | 28.9% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | West Virginia | 45-13 | 1393.5 | +45.6 | 1439.1 | 38.7% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | L | Baylor | 3-30 | 1439.1 | -20.5 | 1418.6 | 30.4% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | L | Houston | 27-30 | 1418.6 | -30.4 | 1388.2 | 28.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 9-48 | 1388.2 | -5.7 | 1382.5 | 8.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 17-14 | 1382.5 | +20.1 | 1402.6 | 70.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | BYU | 21-41 | 1402.6 | -4.7 | 1397.9 | 7.4% |