| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 2026 | W | Bethune-Cookman | 73-6 | 1659.2 | +7.1 | 1666.3 | 99.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Pittsburgh | 7-12 | 1666.3 | +8.7 | 1675.0 | 36.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Georgia State | 44-30 | 1675.0 | -7.0 | 1668.1 | 83.2% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | TCU | 21-13 | 1668.1 | -2.3 | 1665.7 | 48.9% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | Houston | 17-27 | 1665.7 | -3.5 | 1662.2 | 39.2% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Oklahoma State | 28-42 | 1662.2 | -36.4 | 1625.8 | 59.5% |