| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Central Connecticut | 59-13 | 1636.3 | +25.1 | 1661.4 | 98.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Syracuse | 20-27 | 1661.4 | -16.2 | 1645.2 | 51.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Delaware | 41-44 | 1645.2 | -52.1 | 1593.1 | 88.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Ball State | 31-25 | 1593.1 | -19.3 | 1573.8 | 89.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Buffalo | 20-17 | 1573.8 | -14.4 | 1559.4 | 68.1% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Florida International | 51-10 | 1559.4 | +62.1 | 1621.5 | 78.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Boston College | 38-23 | 1616.2 | +35.2 | 1651.4 | 62.2% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Rice | 34-37 | 1651.4 | -42.5 | 1608.9 | 85.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UAB | 38-19 | 1608.9 | +6.5 | 1615.4 | 78.7% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Duke | 37-34 | 1615.4 | +17.5 | 1632.9 | 29.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Air Force | 26-16 | 1632.9 | -4.8 | 1628.1 | 64.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 48-45 | 1628.1 | -16.2 | 1611.9 | 76.9% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | L | Army | 16-41 | 1621.1 | -47.2 | 1573.9 | 57.1% |