| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Central Connecticut | 59-13 | 1401.9 | +0.0 | 1401.9 | 36.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Syracuse | 20-27 | 1401.9 | -13.4 | 1388.5 | 20.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Delaware | 41-44 | 1388.5 | -26.8 | 1361.7 | 38.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Ball State | 31-25 | 1361.7 | +16.9 | 1378.6 | 74.5% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Buffalo | 20-17 | 1378.6 | +49.6 | 1428.2 | 49.5% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Florida International | 51-10 | 1428.2 | +13.7 | 1441.9 | 79.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Boston College | 38-23 | 1441.9 | +36.7 | 1478.6 | 64.4% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Rice | 34-37 | 1478.6 | -62.0 | 1416.6 | 78.8% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | UAB | 38-19 | 1416.6 | +18.7 | 1435.3 | 72.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | Duke | 37-34 | 1435.3 | +66.5 | 1501.8 | 16.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Air Force | 26-16 | 1501.8 | +22.1 | 1523.9 | 67.4% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Florida Atlantic | 48-45 | 1523.9 | +16.2 | 1540.1 | 85.4% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | L | Army | 16-41 | 1540.1 | -44.6 | 1495.5 | 52.5% |