| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Colorado State | 38-21 | 1808.4 | -7.2 | 1801.2 | 85.9% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UC Davis | 70-10 | 1801.2 | +85.2 | 1886.4 | 96.3% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Washington State | 59-24 | 1885.0 | +59.5 | 1944.5 | 90.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Ohio State | 6-24 | 1944.5 | -34.8 | 1909.7 | 27.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Maryland | 24-20 | 1909.7 | -3.4 | 1906.3 | 70.4% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | W | Rutgers | 38-19 | 1906.3 | +42.0 | 1948.3 | 67.5% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Michigan | 7-24 | 1948.3 | -42.5 | 1905.8 | 53.0% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Illinois | 42-25 | 1905.8 | +23.3 | 1929.1 | 53.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 10-13 | 1921.5 | -32.3 | 1889.2 | 81.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Purdue | 49-13 | 1889.2 | +36.5 | 1925.7 | 82.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UCLA | 48-14 | 1925.7 | +36.5 | 1962.2 | 83.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Oregon | 14-26 | 1962.2 | -16.0 | 1946.2 | 26.5% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | W | Boise State | 38-10 | 1943.1 | +28.5 | 1971.6 | 75.4% |