| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | W | Washington State | 24-10 | 1675.7 | +141.7 | 1817.4 | 77.3% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Utah State | 16-14 | 1817.4 | -76.4 | 1741.0 | 93.3% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Eastern Washington | 48-16 | 1741.0 | -5.4 | 1735.6 | 97.3% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | Minnesota | 24-27 | 1735.6 | -10.7 | 1724.9 | 59.2% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | L | USC | 21-25 | 1724.9 | -13.0 | 1711.9 | 37.2% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Iowa | 24-41 | 1711.9 | -12.8 | 1699.1 | 33.4% |