| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Colorado State | 38-21 | 1705.8 | +10.7 | 1716.5 | 83.5% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | UC Davis | 70-10 | 1716.5 | +0.0 | 1716.5 | 77.7% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Washington State | 59-24 | 1716.5 | +15.2 | 1731.7 | 86.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Ohio State | 6-24 | 1731.7 | -12.5 | 1719.2 | 11.2% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Maryland | 24-20 | 1719.2 | +28.1 | 1747.3 | 73.5% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | W | Rutgers | 38-19 | 1747.3 | +15.7 | 1763.0 | 76.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Michigan | 7-24 | 1763.0 | -28.4 | 1734.6 | 40.7% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Illinois | 42-25 | 1734.6 | +40.6 | 1775.2 | 44.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Wisconsin | 10-13 | 1775.2 | -70.2 | 1705.0 | 86.7% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Purdue | 49-13 | 1705.0 | +4.9 | 1709.9 | 92.3% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | UCLA | 48-14 | 1709.9 | +24.7 | 1734.6 | 77.0% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Oregon | 14-26 | 1734.6 | -17.5 | 1717.1 | 15.9% |
| 17 | Dec 13 2025 | W | Boise State | 38-10 | 1717.1 | +36.0 | 1753.1 | 57.7% |