| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | North Texas | 52-16 | 1883.6 | +104.3 | 1987.9 | 91.7% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Howard | 55-0 | 1987.9 | -4.6 | 1983.3 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Western Kentucky | 38-0 | 1983.3 | -75.5 | 1907.8 | 99.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Northwestern | 29-23 | 1907.8 | -20.6 | 1887.2 | 83.7% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | W | Rutgers | 47-15 | 1887.2 | +11.7 | 1898.9 | 94.1% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Nebraska | 20-17 | 1898.9 | -6.6 | 1892.3 | 76.2% |