| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | W | San José State | 42-26 | 1752.1 | +37.6 | 1789.6 | 95.0% |
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Fresno State | 39-0 | 1752.1 | +37.6 | 1789.6 | 80.4% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | W | Louisiana | 49-30 | 1789.6 | +8.8 | 1798.4 | 92.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Rutgers | 42-35 | 1798.4 | -26.0 | 1772.4 | 91.5% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | Oregon | 27-41 | 1772.4 | -10.3 | 1762.1 | 32.1% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Washington | 25-21 | 1762.1 | -4.4 | 1757.7 | 62.8% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Penn State | 31-23 | 1757.7 | +6.2 | 1763.9 | 49.8% |