| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Missouri State | 73-13 | 1866.7 | +105.4 | 1972.1 | 95.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 59-20 | 1972.1 | +51.8 | 2023.9 | 95.4% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Purdue | 33-17 | 2023.9 | -2.1 | 2021.8 | 92.0% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Michigan State | 45-31 | 2021.8 | -12.0 | 2009.8 | 88.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Illinois | 32-34 | 2009.8 | -24.3 | 1985.5 | 73.1% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Michigan | 31-13 | 1984.9 | +18.1 | 2003.0 | 51.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 24-34 | 2003.0 | +0.1 | 2003.1 | 32.5% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Nebraska | 21-17 | 1997.8 | -5.1 | 1992.7 | 70.3% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | W | Northwestern | 38-17 | 1992.7 | +11.7 | 2004.4 | 81.8% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Iowa | 26-21 | 2004.4 | -0.7 | 2003.7 | 52.2% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Oregon | 27-42 | 2003.7 | -12.7 | 1991.0 | 32.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UCLA | 29-10 | 1991.0 | -9.0 | 1982.0 | 89.9% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | L | TCU | 27-30 | 1977.0 | -19.3 | 1957.7 | 71.4% |