| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Missouri State | 73-13 | 1668.8 | +19.3 | 1688.1 | 71.3% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 59-20 | 1688.1 | +12.7 | 1700.8 | 80.6% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Purdue | 33-17 | 1700.8 | +12.7 | 1713.5 | 88.6% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Michigan State | 45-31 | 1713.5 | +17.9 | 1731.4 | 73.3% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Illinois | 32-34 | 1731.4 | -33.9 | 1697.5 | 47.7% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Michigan | 31-13 | 1697.5 | +58.1 | 1755.6 | 25.2% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Notre Dame | 24-34 | 1755.6 | -23.3 | 1732.3 | 34.1% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Nebraska | 21-17 | 1732.3 | +35.8 | 1768.1 | 65.3% |
| 12 | Nov 7 2025 | W | Northwestern | 38-17 | 1768.1 | +15.2 | 1783.3 | 77.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Iowa | 26-21 | 1783.3 | +30.5 | 1813.8 | 56.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Oregon | 27-42 | 1813.8 | -16.4 | 1797.4 | 24.7% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | UCLA | 29-10 | 1797.4 | +8.7 | 1806.1 | 86.5% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | L | TCU | 27-30 | 1806.1 | -55.2 | 1750.9 | 64.9% |